Freedom lies behind a door, closed shut It can only be knocked down with a bleeding fist- Egyptian Poet Ahmad Shawqi (1869-1932)
After seeing US and Israel dithering over the mass uprising in Egypt, one can't help but recall the days leading to the Iranian Revolution. The cables sent by the American and other western Embassies in Tehran to their respective capitals in those days make a humorous read. Phrases like “Epitome of stability”, “Island of Stability”, “Rock solid support”, etc kept the intelligence bosses napping as Ayatollah Khomeini pulled the rug beneath the despot.
Similarly, the comments coming from intelligence bosses at Washington and Tel Aviv prior to the Egyptian uprising were peppered with similar phrases. Noted Israeli analyst Gideon Levy recounts how Israeli intelligence officers, along with their alleged best brain on Egypt, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, were briefing the country's top bosses that “Egypt was still in our hand” and how "everything is under control". They were under the impression that Cairo was not Tunis and that Mubarak was too strong to be unseated. To give credibility to his report, Ben-Eliezer also maintained that he was in regular touch with his Egyptian counterparts and they were assured that everything was under control.
The stark similarity clearly indicates how less Israeli and western agencies have learnt about the way people act and react.
“We have become tangential in the region. I'll say that US policy in the Middle East is not on purpose evil. The targets are novel. But the problem is, like an old man, the US' complete reference system is dispiritedly obsolete and no longer holds any meaning,” said Robert Grenier, a CIA veteran in the region with over three decades of experience, to TSI.
On the other hand, when Mubarak appointed intelligence chief Omar Suleiman as his deputy, he was essentially playing his last ace in the kitty. Suleiman suits well to both Israelis and Americans. Any kindergarten student can tell that Suleiman, for all practical purposes, had no hold on the Egyptian streets. So why was he chosen? Well, highly placed sources close to this correspondent believe that he was zeroed in on because nobody in Egypt — not even Mubarak himself — knows the men in olive green fatigues better than him. Suleiman, as it turns out, has spent his career keeping officers in line, and on their toe. And if sources are to be believed, the guy knows the profile and history of every single officer in the Egyptian Army by heart and can predict their loyalty or the lack of it by mere sniffing. Naturally, he is going to be Washington's Man Friday in Cairo. And the first job he is expected to do is to make the security apparatus, which has evaporated since last Friday evening, fall in line.
In fact, the most interesting role in this entire episode has been played by the Egyptian Army and even the police. Hosni Mubarak was a man in uniform till he decided to enjoy further largesses. However, even after taking on the mantle of a dictator, he always made sure that his officers got duly rewarded in cash and kind. However, as is the way of the world, there exists no gratitude in politics.
Another veteran CIA man of the region Robert Baer tells TSI, “The forces, as well as the police, has realised that this a mass protest where people from all classes and religions are participating. It is not like the past when they were asked to run through a rag-tag group of agitators or fundamentalists. They thus realised that it will be insane and harmful to their health if they are perceived to be siding with a regime that itself does not know whether it will see the next sunrise or not.”
Somewhere in between, Western capitals are desperately praying that the uprising will choose Mohamed ElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, as its leader. In fact, they are doing more than merely praying. One needs to just monitor the shifting (and often conflicting) positions and tone taken by CNN and BBC in the past week to understand this larger game. The only problem is that ElBaradei holds far less sway over the Egyptian population than the Western powers have over him.
Theoretically, it is possible that in any interim government dominated by the men in olive green, ElBaradei will act as a straw man. Generals know that he does not have a support base worth a dime and such men are risk free. But his role will finish then and there. Because after the interim government is set up, the elections will come and as much as you might like him, ElBaradei is bound to cut a sorry figure there.
“The likely winner of truly free polls would be the Muslim Brotherhood. They are not as radical as the Islamists. But the first thing they have promised to do if they win power is to hold a referendum on Egypt's diplomatic relations with Israel. And most Egyptians would vote to cancel it,” says Gwynne Dyer, an Arab world watcher based in London whose focus is the modus operandi of the Brotherhood.
Under the circumstances, there is also a space for the rise of the secular Left in the region, the death of which brought radical Islam to the forefront. One can be sure that Leftist voices in the region would be gearing up to act as a balancing force. After all, Mao himself said, “There is great chaos under heaven – the situation is excellent.”
As for the Americans and Israelis, they must understand that it is not enough to have a smattering of embassies in line and intelligence bosses in the pocket to be accepted in West Asia. It is also essential that one invests in goodwill.
In the context, I can not resist the temptation to use the social media joke started by the celebrated Arab-American writer and a friend of mine, Ismail Khalidi. He tweeted, #US and #Israel change relationship status with #Egypt to “It's complicated” on Facebook. #Lebanon, #Syria & #Palestine 'Like' this.
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